Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Chargers

Before kickoff

BUF

63%

LAC

37%

Predicted winner

BUF

Confidence

66%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

24–22

Winner BUF. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 LAC
• Scoring−0.3 BUF
• Scoring differential−0.2 BUF
• QB yards/attempt−0.2 BUF