Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers

Before kickoff

ATL

51%

CAR

49%

Predicted winner

ATL

Confidence

56%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

7–9

Winner CAR. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 CAR
• Scoring−0.2 ATL
• Passing efficiency+0.2 CAR
• Scoring differential−0.2 ATL