Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons

Before kickoff

TB

49%

ATL

51%

Predicted winner

ATL

Confidence

56%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

29–25

Winner TB. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 ATL
• QB yards/attempt−0.3 TB
• Passing defense+0.1 ATL
• Passing offense+0.1 ATL