New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers

Before kickoff

NE

43%

PIT

57%

Predicted winner

PIT

Confidence

60%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

21–18

Winner NE. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 PIT
• Interception rate+0.2 PIT
• Rushing defense−0.2 NE
• Win percentage+0.1 PIT