Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals

Before kickoff

IND

49%

CIN

51%

Predicted winner

CIN

Confidence

56%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

14–34

Winner CIN. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 CIN
• Turnovers−0.1 IND
• Offensive touchdowns+0.1 CIN
• Passing defense−0.1 IND