Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers

Before kickoff

KC

65%

GB

35%

Predicted winner

KC

Confidence

65%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

19–27

Winner GB. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 GB
• Scoring−0.2 KC
• QB yards/attempt−0.2 KC
• Rushing defense−0.2 KC