Denver Broncos at Houston Texans

Before kickoff

DEN

41%

HOU

59%

Predicted winner

HOU

Confidence

61%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

17–22

Winner HOU. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 HOU
• QB yards/attempt+0.3 HOU
• Rushing defense+0.2 HOU
• Passing offense−0.2 DEN