Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts

Before kickoff

TB

42%

IND

58%

Predicted winner

IND

Confidence

59%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

20–27

Winner IND. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 IND
• Rushing defense−0.2 TB
• Scoring+0.2 IND
• Interception rate−0.1 TB