New England Patriots at New York Giants

Before kickoff

NE

59%

NYG

41%

Predicted winner

NE

Confidence

60%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

7–10

Winner NYG. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 NYG
• QB yards/attempt−0.4 NE
• Rushing defense−0.3 NE
• QB completion %+0.1 NYG