Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans

Before kickoff

JAX

48%

HOU

52%

Predicted winner

HOU

Confidence

55%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

24–21

Winner JAX. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 HOU
• QB yards/attempt+0.4 HOU
• Rushing defense−0.2 JAX
• Passing efficiency−0.1 JAX