New York Jets at Las Vegas Raiders

Before kickoff

NYJ

62%

LV

38%

Predicted winner

NYJ

Confidence

61%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

12–16

Winner LV. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 LV
• QB yards/attempt−0.5 NYJ
• Interception rate−0.3 NYJ
• Scoring+0.1 LV