Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots

Before kickoff

IND

68%

NE

32%

Predicted winner

IND

Confidence

65%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

10–6

Winner IND. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Scoring−0.4 IND
• Rushing defense+0.2 NE
• Scoring differential−0.1 IND
• Interception rate−0.1 IND