Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals

Before kickoff

HOU

45%

CIN

55%

Predicted winner

CIN

Confidence

56%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

30–27

Winner HOU. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 CIN
• Passing efficiency+0.2 CIN
• QB yards/attempt−0.2 HOU
• Win percentage+0.1 CIN