Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills

Before kickoff

DEN

29%

BUF

71%

Predicted winner

BUF

Confidence

67%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

24–22

Winner DEN. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 BUF
• Scoring+0.4 BUF
• Scoring differential+0.3 BUF
• Rushing defense+0.2 BUF