Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals

Before kickoff

ATL

71%

ARI

29%

Predicted winner

ATL

Confidence

68%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

23–25

Winner ARI. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• QB yards/attempt−0.9 ATL
• Home field+0.6 ARI
• Passing efficiency+0.2 ARI
• Scoring differential−0.1 ATL