New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts

Before kickoff

NO

46%

IND

54%

Predicted winner

IND

Confidence

54%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

38–27

Winner NO. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 IND
• Scoring+0.2 IND
• Passing defense−0.2 NO
• Points allowed+0.2 IND