New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

Before kickoff

NE

27%

MIA

73%

Predicted winner

MIA

Confidence

67%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

17–31

Winner MIA. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Scoring+0.8 MIA
• Home field+0.6 MIA
• Passing efficiency−0.4 NE
• Scoring differential+0.2 MIA