Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

Before kickoff

KC

73%

DEN

27%

Predicted winner

KC

Confidence

67%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

9–24

Winner DEN. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 DEN
• Scoring−0.4 KC
• Scoring differential−0.4 KC
• Rushing defense−0.3 KC