Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots

Before kickoff

BUF

71%

NE

29%

Predicted winner

BUF

Confidence

64%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

25–29

Winner NE. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Scoring−0.8 BUF
• Home field+0.6 NE
• Scoring differential−0.4 BUF
• Offensive touchdowns−0.2 BUF