Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills

Before kickoff

JAX

37%

BUF

63%

Predicted winner

BUF

Confidence

54%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

25–20

Winner JAX. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Scoring+0.6 BUF
• Scoring differential+0.3 BUF
• Interception rate−0.2 JAX
• Offensive touchdowns+0.2 BUF