Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills

Before kickoff

MIA

36%

BUF

64%

Predicted winner

BUF

Confidence

53%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

20–48

Winner BUF. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 BUF
• Passing efficiency+0.3 BUF
• Passing defense+0.2 BUF
• Points allowed−0.2 MIA