Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars

Before kickoff

ATL

57%

JAX

43%

Predicted winner

ATL

Confidence

47%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

7–23

Winner JAX. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Rushing defense+0.2 JAX
• Passing offense−0.2 ATL
• Passing defense−0.2 ATL
• Scoring+0.1 JAX