Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions

Before kickoff

ATL

43%

DET

57%

Predicted winner

DET

Confidence

44%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

6–20

Winner DET. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 DET
• Passing offense−0.3 ATL
• Scoring+0.2 DET
• Passing defense−0.2 ATL