Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars

Before kickoff

KC

51%

JAX

49%

Predicted winner

KC

Confidence

35%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

17–9

Winner KC. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.6 JAX
• QB yards/attempt−0.2 KC
• Passing offense+0.1 JAX
• Offensive touchdowns−0.1 KC