New York Jets at Miami Dolphins

Before kickoff

NYJ

45%

MIA

55%

Predicted winner

MIA

Confidence

60%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

6–11

Winner MIA. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.4 MIA
• Scoring+0.3 MIA
• QB yards/attempt−0.2 NYJ
• Passing defense−0.2 NYJ