Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets

Before kickoff

JAX

63%

NYJ

37%

Predicted winner

JAX

Confidence

65%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

19–3

Winner JAX. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• QB yards/attempt−0.6 JAX
• Home field+0.4 NYJ
• Passing defense+0.2 NYJ
• Scoring−0.1 JAX