Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens

Before kickoff

ATL

27%

BAL

73%

Predicted winner

BAL

Confidence

73%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

9–17

Winner BAL. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Rushing defense+0.5 BAL
• QB yards/attempt+0.5 BAL
• Home field+0.4 BAL
• Points allowed−0.2 ATL