Dallas Cowboys at Jacksonville Jaguars

Before kickoff

DAL

68%

JAX

32%

Predicted winner

DAL

Confidence

68%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

34–40

Winner JAX. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Scoring−0.4 DAL
• Home field+0.4 JAX
• Passing defense−0.3 DAL
• QB yards/attempt−0.2 DAL