New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals

Before kickoff

NE

59%

ARI

41%

Predicted winner

NE

Confidence

61%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

27–13

Winner NE. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• QB yards/attempt−0.7 NE
• Home field+0.4 ARI
• Passing defense−0.2 NE
• Points allowed+0.2 ARI