Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions

Before kickoff

JAX

46%

DET

54%

Predicted winner

DET

Confidence

57%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

14–40

Winner DET. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.4 DET
• Rushing defense−0.3 JAX
• Scoring+0.2 DET
• Points allowed+0.2 DET