Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts

Before kickoff

PIT

39%

IND

61%

Predicted winner

IND

Confidence

62%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

24–17

Winner PIT. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.4 IND
• Passing defense+0.3 IND
• Points allowed−0.1 PIT
• QB yards/attempt−0.1 PIT