Washington Commanders at Houston Texans

Before kickoff

WAS

68%

HOU

32%

Predicted winner

WAS

Confidence

66%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

23–10

Winner WAS. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Rushing defense−0.6 WAS
• Home field+0.4 HOU
• Scoring−0.2 WAS
• Win percentage−0.1 WAS