Indianapolis Colts at Las Vegas Raiders

Before kickoff

IND

31%

LV

69%

Predicted winner

LV

Confidence

65%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

25–20

Winner IND. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• QB yards/attempt+0.6 LV
• Home field+0.4 LV
• Scoring+0.2 LV
• Passing defense−0.2 IND