Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears

Before kickoff

DET

36%

CHI

64%

Predicted winner

CHI

Confidence

62%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

31–30

Winner DET. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Passing offense+0.4 CHI
• Home field+0.4 CHI
• Passing defense+0.4 CHI
• Interception rate−0.2 DET