Los Angeles Chargers at Atlanta Falcons

Before kickoff

LAC

50%

ATL

50%

Predicted winner

LAC

Confidence

51%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

20–17

Winner LAC. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Passing offense+0.5 ATL
• Home field+0.4 ATL
• Passing defense−0.3 LAC
• Interception rate−0.3 LAC