Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars

Before kickoff

DEN

38%

JAX

62%

Predicted winner

JAX

Confidence

59%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

21–17

Winner DEN. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• QB yards/attempt+0.6 JAX
• Passing defense−0.2 DEN
• Scoring+0.2 JAX
• Points allowed+0.2 JAX