Washington Commanders at Chicago Bears

Before kickoff

WAS

50%

CHI

50%

Predicted winner

CHI

Confidence

48%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

12–7

Winner WAS. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Rushing defense−0.4 WAS
• Passing offense+0.4 CHI
• Home field+0.4 CHI
• Passing defense+0.3 CHI