Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Pittsburgh Steelers

Before kickoff

TB

84%

PIT

16%

Predicted winner

TB

Confidence

72%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

18–20

Winner PIT. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• QB yards/attempt−0.7 TB
• Scoring−0.4 TB
• Home field+0.4 PIT
• Passing offense+0.4 PIT