New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns

Before kickoff

NE

35%

CLE

65%

Predicted winner

CLE

Confidence

58%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

38–15

Winner NE. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.4 CLE
• Interception rate+0.2 CLE
• Points allowed+0.2 CLE
• Turnovers−0.1 NE