Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs

Before kickoff

BUF

45%

KC

55%

Predicted winner

KC

Confidence

52%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

24–20

Winner BUF. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Passing defense−0.5 BUF
• Home field+0.4 KC
• Points allowed+0.3 KC
• QB yards/attempt+0.2 KC