Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos

Before kickoff

IND

47%

DEN

53%

Predicted winner

DEN

Confidence

48%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

12–9

Winner IND. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.4 DEN
• Interception rate+0.2 DEN
• Passing defense+0.1 DEN
• Rushing defense−0.1 IND