Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Before kickoff

ATL

29%

TB

71%

Predicted winner

TB

Confidence

60%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

15–21

Winner TB. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.4 TB
• Passing offense−0.4 ATL
• Interception rate+0.4 TB
• Rushing defense+0.3 TB