New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers

Before kickoff

NE

34%

GB

66%

Predicted winner

GB

Confidence

54%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

24–27

Winner GB. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.4 GB
• Interception rate+0.4 GB
• Offensive touchdowns+0.2 GB
• Turnovers−0.1 NE