Cleveland Browns at Atlanta Falcons

Before kickoff

CLE

62%

ATL

38%

Predicted winner

CLE

Confidence

51%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

20–23

Winner ATL. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.4 ATL
• QB yards/attempt+0.3 ATL
• Rushing defense−0.2 CLE
• Interception rate−0.2 CLE