San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos

Before kickoff

SF

51%

DEN

49%

Predicted winner

SF

Confidence

39%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

10–11

Winner DEN. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.4 DEN
• Scoring−0.3 SF
• QB yards/attempt+0.2 DEN
• Interception rate+0.2 DEN