Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Chargers

Before kickoff

JAX

26%

LAC

74%

Predicted winner

LAC

Confidence

56%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

38–10

Winner JAX. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Scoring+0.5 LAC
• Home field+0.4 LAC
• Passing offense−0.4 JAX
• Offensive touchdowns+0.3 LAC