Houston Texans at Chicago Bears

Before kickoff

HOU

40%

CHI

60%

Predicted winner

CHI

Confidence

46%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

20–23

Winner CHI. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Interception rate−0.5 HOU
• Home field+0.4 CHI
• Passing defense+0.4 CHI
• Passing offense+0.2 CHI