Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Before kickoff

GB

38%

TB

62%

Predicted winner

TB

Confidence

47%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

14–12

Winner GB. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.4 TB
• Rushing defense+0.3 TB
• Scoring+0.2 TB
• Passing defense−0.2 GB