Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks

Before kickoff

ATL

47%

SEA

53%

Predicted winner

SEA

Confidence

41%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

27–23

Winner ATL. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.4 SEA
• Points allowed−0.2 ATL
• Passing defense−0.1 ATL
• Interception rate+0.1 SEA