New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers

Before kickoff

NE

59%

PIT

41%

Predicted winner

NE

Confidence

40%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

17–14

Winner NE. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.4 PIT
• Rushing defense−0.3 NE
• QB yards/attempt−0.3 NE
• Passing defense−0.2 NE